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05
MAY
2016
Houses of Parliament

ACI UK: Europe – Should We Stay Or Should We Go?

The ACI – Financial Markets Association organised a lively and topical debate on in or out for Europe. The proposers and seconders for each side were heavyweights. We had Brendan Bradley, a Member of the Eurex Executive Board and Chief Innovations Officer. Ruth Lea CBE is...
24
MAR
2016
Goldman Sachs

Goldman the Largest Bank by Commodities Revenue

Goldman Sachs retained its spot as the largest bank by commodities revenue in 2015. It was a bad year for most other investment firms. Goldman  made the most money from raw materials among the top 12 investment banks for a second consecutive year, says Coalition. Coalition, based...
23
MAR
2016
Source Bloomberg

Knife Catching for Professionals – Calling the Oil Price Low

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has announced the oil price may have made a bottom. The oil price is a graveyard of experts who have called the low. Catching a falling knife is clearly a very dangerous occupation.   The following bodies have been found so far: Andy...
29
FEB
2016
Warren Buffett

Berkshire Holdings Will Be All Right In The Long Run

In Berkshire Hathaway’s latest update published Saturday, Warren Buffett reiterated support for his massive holdings in IBM, Wells Fargo & Co. and Coca-Cola Co. He says, , they “possess excellent businesses and are run by managers who are both talented and...
29
FEB
2016
Currencies Race To The Bottom

Currency Wars, The Race to the Bottom – The Story So Far

The best remembered frenzy of competitive devaluations in history came during the Great Depression, as countries were in an unseemly hurry to abandon the gold standard. Until its collapse in 1971, the Bretton Woods system prevented a repeat of such tit-for-tat strategies by...
16
FEB
2016

Chart Lesson: Falling Wedge in the Rand

As those of you who have attended one of my courses will know I always prefer to use live current market examples to illustrate the lesson. What is the point of using a chart from 1972 as a Case Study. It of course worked out perfectly. But in real life we work on the hard right...
15
FEB
2016

Upside Down World – Buying Equities with a High P/E Ratio i.e. Herding, Not a Good Strategy

For many investors, the most commonly used method of stock valuation is the Price to Earnings multiple or the PE ratio. The current market price divided by the latest earnings per share of the company in question gives us the PE multiple for the stock. From a historical...
10
FEB
2016
Rick Bensingor

Conformational Bias in Portfolio Managers – a Rant

Confirmation Bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities. I have seen this in research pieces put out by...
08
FEB
2016

Where Have All the FX Traders Gone?

FX trading in the U.K. and North America shrank by more than 20 percent in October from a year earlier, according to central banks in those regions. London is the biggest centre for foreign-exchange trading. The investment banking business has shed tens of thousands of positions...
08
FEB
2016

Spread in Strategists Year-End S&P500 Guesses Wider Than Ever Before

Just over a month into the year and there have been more cuts for year end targets by strategists and analysts this early in the year than ever before. Strategists and analysts are famous for their herding – but not right now. The gap between the highest and lowest...