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12
JUN
2016
Black Swan

Why are There so Many Crashes?

Risk modelling, for example, Value-at-Risk, measures and quantifies the level of financial risk within a firm or investment portfolio over a specific time frame. We use Value at risk to measure and control the level of risk which our firms undertake. But consistently the answer...
03
JUN
2016
Terminal Down

Funny Video About Stop Placement

Not funny really. It is too true to be funny but please enjoy. Click Hold  Thanks to NathanTucci
26
MAY
2016
What next for the dollar?

Where’s next for the US dollar? But Wait…We Do Not Know

I saw and interesting piece of quant research by a very well respected investment bank which looks at the performance before and after a rate hike. It draws so conclusions and admits some mixed results in its analysis. The conclusion and headline is: “The Trade Weighted US...
23
MAY
2016

Portfolio and Risk Management Software Test

I have built a comprehensive and complex risk and portfolio monitoring programme. I did it for my own purposes and it is built out of my own experience and years. It has taken literally decades to develop. I wanted it to be just right for my purposes and the investment in time...
16
FEB
2016

Chart Lesson: Falling Wedge in the Rand

As those of you who have attended one of my courses will know I always prefer to use live current market examples to illustrate the lesson. What is the point of using a chart from 1972 as a Case Study. It of course worked out perfectly. But in real life we work on the hard right...
13
FEB
2016

Tom DeMark Calls For a Stock Market Market Bottom Right Now

In a Bloomberg TV Interview last week Tom DeMark calls for a market bottom in the next 2-3 market days.  He is not a man to mince his market calls. He does not get it right every time but some of his calls have been simply spectacular.  I’ve known Tom for many years and can...
10
FEB
2016
Rick Bensingor

Conformational Bias in Portfolio Managers – a Rant

Confirmation Bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities. I have seen this in research pieces put out by...
18
JAN
2016
SPX Weekly

It is ‘Bleedin’ Obvious’ or, if you prefer, Occam’s Razor

Believe your eyes. The bleedin’ obvious is very often correct. If you want to appear all intellectual, say you turned bearish because of Occam’s Razor. The trend is your friend – until the end. I teach this in both my Introduction and Advanced Technical Analysis...
11
JAN
2016

Statistical Test of Three Popular DeMark Technical Indicators

Late last year, Marco Lissandrin ETH Zurich, Donnacha Daly ETH Zurich and Didier Sornette Swiss Finance Institute; ETH Zürich – Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC) published a research piece of great importance to us fans of the work of Tom DeMark....
12
OCT
2015
Economists forecasts

Economists Never Learn

Shouldn’t the role of economists be limited to explaining data and to stay away from forecasting? Forecasting is something they are terrible at. They seem to consistently crowd as a group at the wrong answer. Usually when people are consistently bad at something they stop...