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23
MAR
2016
Source Bloomberg

Knife Catching for Professionals – Calling the Oil Price Low

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has announced the oil price may have made a bottom. The oil price is a graveyard of experts who have called the low. Catching a falling knife is clearly a very dangerous occupation.   The following bodies have been found so far: Andy...
29
FEB
2016
Warren Buffett

Berkshire Holdings Will Be All Right In The Long Run

In Berkshire Hathaway’s latest update published Saturday, Warren Buffett reiterated support for his massive holdings in IBM, Wells Fargo & Co. and Coca-Cola Co. He says, , they “possess excellent businesses and are run by managers who are both talented and...
29
FEB
2016
Currencies Race To The Bottom

Currency Wars, The Race to the Bottom – The Story So Far

The best remembered frenzy of competitive devaluations in history came during the Great Depression, as countries were in an unseemly hurry to abandon the gold standard. Until its collapse in 1971, the Bretton Woods system prevented a repeat of such tit-for-tat strategies by...
15
FEB
2016

Upside Down World – Buying Equities with a High P/E Ratio i.e. Herding, Not a Good Strategy

For many investors, the most commonly used method of stock valuation is the Price to Earnings multiple or the PE ratio. The current market price divided by the latest earnings per share of the company in question gives us the PE multiple for the stock. From a historical...
13
FEB
2016
My Delema

A Prospect Theory Dilemma – “I Face It Today”

Recently I have had the delightful task of presenting my short talk on behavioural finance to professionals up and down the country. The talk has the catchy title: Bulls, Bears – We Are All Sheep. It is a lunchtime, one hour presentation which I have been giving recently to...
13
FEB
2016

Tom DeMark Calls For a Stock Market Market Bottom Right Now

In a Bloomberg TV Interview last week Tom DeMark calls for a market bottom in the next 2-3 market days.  He is not a man to mince his market calls. He does not get it right every time but some of his calls have been simply spectacular.  I’ve known Tom for many years and can...
10
FEB
2016
Rick Bensingor

Conformational Bias in Portfolio Managers – a Rant

Confirmation Bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities. I have seen this in research pieces put out by...
08
FEB
2016

Where Have All the FX Traders Gone?

FX trading in the U.K. and North America shrank by more than 20 percent in October from a year earlier, according to central banks in those regions. London is the biggest centre for foreign-exchange trading. The investment banking business has shed tens of thousands of positions...
08
FEB
2016

Spread in Strategists Year-End S&P500 Guesses Wider Than Ever Before

Just over a month into the year and there have been more cuts for year end targets by strategists and analysts this early in the year than ever before. Strategists and analysts are famous for their herding – but not right now. The gap between the highest and lowest...
18
JAN
2016
SPX Weekly

It is ‘Bleedin’ Obvious’ or, if you prefer, Occam’s Razor

Believe your eyes. The bleedin’ obvious is very often correct. If you want to appear all intellectual, say you turned bearish because of Occam’s Razor. The trend is your friend – until the end. I teach this in both my Introduction and Advanced Technical Analysis...