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06
MAR
2018

Cocoa: What a Big Bottom You Have

Over the last 12 months, Cocoa has been forming a very big bottom formation. Big bottoms can support big moves, particularly if there is little resistance to impede it. I see big things for this market  in the coming months – may be a 30% advance in price. Following ...
15
FEB
2018

Past Performance is not an Indicator of Future Success

The phrase “past performance is not an indicator of future success” can be found in the fine print all fund literature. Yet, due to either force of habit or conviction, investors and advisors consider past performance and related metrics to be important factors in fund selection....
01
FEB
2018
Trevor Neil on IG TV

Defensive Cover for a Rampant Stock Market

In this interview on IG.TV I cover strategies to give yourself cover yourself if the market turns but not leave the best bull market ever. These five strategies give you variously themed protection to a fall, particularly a sudden fall in the market, without giving up on the...
08
JAN
2018

Economists and the market get the FED Funds rate right for once

Investors have been getting it all wrong on the of the Fed Funds rate for years. They have forecast higher rates year after year.  Some years ago I blogged What is the point of economists despairing at their consistency in getting it wrong. But not now. There is still some...
02
JAN
2018

The Cost of Vanity

I was an admirer and fan of Crispin Odey, the charismatic head of Odey Asset Management. I have seen how his strong convictions and his money mouth is ways to have built his fund into a titan and to earn a profit of £143 million and performance fees of £58  just two years ago. I...
21
NOV
2017

Old Mutual Admits Economists Cannot Make Forecasts

Watch this video where Ian Heslop, Wealth Manager and Economist at Old Mutual admits that analysing the fundamentals is impossible and pointless. All his colleagues get it wrong. The explains that Old Mutual will, therefore, no longer do it.  He points out other experts IBM CEO...
15
AUG
2017

Why Does the Mathematical Probability So Often Turn Out NOT To Be the Real Life Probability?

I am preparing a presentation for traders on trading options. They work in a large international energy corporate. These are traders working in treasury but not option specialists. This, you would expect, would be an intermediate-level course on options and options maths. I have...
30
JUL
2017
Accredited by LSE Group Academy

Institutional Trader Programme

Last year, the London Stock Exchange Group Academy approached me to develop a two-week course designed for people who want to experience the institutional world of investment and to start their first leg of their career in the City. We put together the Institutional Trader...
09
JUL
2017

Why the misnamed ‘Traditional’ method of Point and Figure box sizing has no place in the 21st Century

Point and Figure “Guru” Jeremy du Plessis writes: When Point and Figure charts were used in the late 18th and first half of the 19th century, prices were low and so box sizes of ¼. ½ or 1 point were used. The charts were all plotted on an arithmetic scale. Each X and...
13
APR
2017

Bad Forecasting Damage

My friend and technical analyst colleague, Nicole Elliott has written a thought-provoking piece in the STA journal. You can read it HERE. I have long been a knocker of the value of economists and forecasters. It started my blog five years ago, What is the Point of Economists,...