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21
NOV
2017

Old Mutual Admits Economists Cannot Make Forecasts

Watch this video where Ian Heslop, Wealth Manager and Economist at Old Mutual admits that analysing the fundamentals is impossible and pointless. All his colleagues get it wrong. The explains that Old Mutual will, therefore, no longer do it.  He points out other experts IBM CEO...
15
AUG
2017

Why Does the Mathematical Probability So Often Turn Out NOT To Be the Real Life Probability?

I am preparing a presentation for traders on trading options. They work in a large international energy corporate. These are traders working in treasury but not option specialists. This, you would expect, would be an intermediate-level course on options and options maths. I have...
01
JUN
2017
Brain full of computers

Those involved in the current love affair with Quants should remember anomalies are bound to die

A new study* making waves in quantitative finance tested 447 anomalies identified by academics and found more than eight out of 10 vanish when rigorous tests are app lied. Among those failing to reach statistical significance: one anomaly recently set out by the godfathers of...
07
DEC
2016

Dispelling Myths Surrounding the Professional Practice of Technical Analysis

The Market Technicians Association and the CFA Institute have jointly published a literature review entitled Technical Analysis: Modern Perspectives.  Recent research has addressed the role of technical analysis in the broader context of financial markets and begins to trace the...
07
OCT
2016

Arnold Palmer’s Legacy

Arnold Palmer passed away on September a the age of 87. He broadened golf’s appeal, taking it from an elite minority sport to a truly popular global sport. He embraced the new media of TV and all the marketing opportunities that flowed from it: clubs, clothes...
15
AUG
2016

Because Analysts Cannot Understand the Market Does Not Mean it is Not a Market

Financial Times 15/8/16 - The bizarre nature of market signals has barely started. The words of Bachman Turner Overdrive spring to mind: ‘You ain’t seen nothin’ yet’. This is an Alice in Wonderland market where nothing is how it seems. Indeed we are falling foul...
12
JUN
2016
Black Swan

Why are There so Many Crashes?

Risk modelling, for example, Value-at-Risk, measures and quantifies the level of financial risk within a firm or investment portfolio over a specific time frame. We use Value at risk to measure and control the level of risk which our firms undertake. But consistently the answer...
03
JUN
2016
Terminal Down

Funny Video About Stop Placement

Not funny really. It is too true to be funny but please enjoy. Click Hold  Thanks to NathanTucci
26
MAY
2016
What next for the dollar?

Where’s next for the US dollar? But Wait…We Do Not Know

I saw and interesting piece of quant research by a very well respected investment bank which looks at the performance before and after a rate hike. It draws so conclusions and admits some mixed results in its analysis. The conclusion and headline is: “The Trade Weighted US...
18
MAY
2016
Which is longer? Which looks longer?

Yet Another Reason Trading Is So Difficult: The Waterfall Effect

I have known it for a long time, staring at the screens makes me see movements which are not actually there. Like the optical illusion of the two arrows, the illusion is always present even though I know the lines are the same. Try as I might, I cannot get my brain to correct its...