We are at odds again. I am getting ready to buy DXY. I do agree that we have a potential H&S pattern here. We are testing the psychologically and strong congestion support on DXY at 100. The count from the neckline break could be 96.00. The monthly MACD is also close to crossing down. The RSI is pointing down but vulnerable to a short-term reaction up here. That would not destroy the threat but may be the neckline holding.
It is worth reminding ourselves of the monthly chart. It looks much more like the DXY is consolidating after the breakout and continuing the pattern of rising lows since 2011. If we get a strong bodied candle here in the daily chart, I will buy with a stop at 99.18 – looking for the next swing up to start from this pullback. (I am square at the moment having been stopped out at 101.17). Of course, if I do not get the strong message here at the neckline and it breaks down, then the buy is off. There is so much support below; I cannot see a down-move developing into anything meaningful. I, therefore, see the downside risk here as low and hope for a buy trigger.
Yours, trying to see the wood for the trees,